Avec le réchauffement climatique, la glace fond. Le niveau de la mer monte. Et en Antarctique, un phénomène étonnant pourrait contribuer à ce processus : l’hydrofracturation des barrières de glace. Elle pourrait être à l’origine de la libération d’une quantité colossale d’eau.

Ce que les chercheurs appellent une barrière de glace, c’est une étendue de glace de plusieurs dizaines à plusieurs centaines de mètres d’épaisseur. Un peu comme une immense langue glacée qui vient à la rencontre de l’océan. Retenant les glaciers qui, sans elle, s’écouleraient librement dans l’eau. Entraînant une élévation importante du niveau mondial de la mer.

L’ennui, c’est que dans le contexte de réchauffement climatique anthropique, les barrières de glace fondent par le haut et par le bas. Prises en sandwich qu’elles sont entre l’atmosphère et l’océan dont les températures augmentent. Pour mieux comprendre ce qui se joue du côté de l’Antarctique, des chercheurs de l’université de Reading (Royaume-Uni) nous présentent aujourd’hui les résultats de nouvelles simulations sous différents scénarios de réchauffement.

Selon eux, un réchauffement de 4 °C par rapport aux températures préindustrielles exposerait quatre barrières de glace — Larsen C, Wilkins, l’île du Pin et certaines parties de la barrière de Shackleton — à un risque d’effondrement par « hydrofracturation ». La faute donc notamment… à un excédent de neige !

Cela peut sembler contre-intuitif. Pourtant, le réchauffement climatique devrait avoir pour effet un surplus de neige sur l’Antarctique. Un air plus chaud retient en effet plus d’humidité. Qui peut ensuite tomber sous forme de neige. Des travaux publiés récemment par une équipe internationale de chercheurs montrent d’ailleurs qu’au-dessus des terres, les chutes de neige compensent largement la fonte. La calotte glaciaire antarctique prend donc de la masse en certains endroits.

Mais, revenons à nos barrières de glace. Elles se développent en surface lorsque de la neige s’y accumule — tout au long de l’année — plus vite qu’elle ne fond — en été. Ce que les scientifiques appellent un bilan de masse en surface (BMS) positif. Pendant la saison estivale, la neige qui fond coule dans les trous d’air formés dans la barrière. Plus tard, elle gèle lorsque les températures redescendent. Si la fonte des glaces dépasse en importance les chutes de neige pendant plusieurs années, les barrières peuvent finir par être saturées en eau de fonte recongelée. À l’arrivée de l’été, l’eau de fonte ne peut plus s’infiltrer. Elle stagne en surface ou creuse de profondes fractures dans la glace. Des fractures qui peuvent en venir à atteindre l’autre extrémité de la barrière. C’est ce que les chercheurs appellent l’hydrofracturation. Ce processus a déjà provoqué l’effondrement de la barrière de Larsen A en 1995. Puis de celle de Larsen B en 2002.

Les modèles des chercheurs de l’université de Reading montrent qu’à des niveaux de réchauffement compris entre 1,5 et 2 °C, augmentation de la fonte de surface et augmentation des chutes de neige se compensent. Sauf sur l’est de l’Antarctique et la péninsule antarctique. Une région sur laquelle l’eau de fonte a déjà commencé à s’accumuler en surface pendant l’été. Ainsi, le ruissellement ne prend-il de l’importance que sur 14 à 18 % de la superficie de la banquise antarctique. C’est à peine plus que la moyenne de 9 % enregistrée entre 1980 et 2009.

Avec un réchauffement de 4 °C, les modèles prévoient en revanche un ruissellement étendu sur 67 % de la superficie de la péninsule antarctique et 34 % de l’ensemble du continent. Plus important encore, c’est la façon dont le ruissellement se répartit sur les barrières qui compte. S’il se produit sur une petite partie d’un grand nombre de barrières, le risque de fragilisation est moindre. Mais les modèles des chercheurs concluent bien qu’il se produira de manière importante sur toutes les barrières de glace de la péninsule antarctique, sur deux barrières de l’Antarctique occidental et sur quatre barrières de l’Antarctique de l’est. Heureusement, en raison de leur structure et de leur géographique, toutes ne sont pas aussi vulnérables à l’hydrofracturation comme la barrière George VI ou la barrière du roi Baudoin.

Notons toutefois que ces conclusions sont uniquement tirées d’une étude des interactions glace-atmosphère. En parallèle, des chercheurs de l’université de Göteborg (Suède) annoncent avoir découvert sous l’Antarctique, des courants océaniques qui pourraient également accélérer la fonte des glaces dans la région. Mais des chercheurs de l’université d’Utrecht (Pays-Bas) avancent que la température de l’océan pourrait ne pas augmenter aussi vite que ne le prévoient les modèles actuels.

Pour en arriver à cette conclusion, ils ont intégré à leurs simulations, des tourbillons turbulents dans la circulation océanique. Des tourbillons de 10 à 200 kilomètres de diamètre qui transportent chaleur et sel. Grâce à eux, le niveau de la mer pourrait, dans le siècle à venir, s’élever de 25 % de moins que ne le dessinent les modèles actuels.

Pour en savoir plus

L’Antarctique, c’est, de loin, la source potentielle d’élévation du niveau de la mer la plus importante. De la stabilité de la calotte glaciaire déprendra l’avenir de grandes villes côtières telles que Hambourg, New York ou Tokyo. Alors des chercheurs ont voulu évaluer avec précision comment et quand l’Antarctique réagira à l’augmentation des températures due au réchauffement climatique. Leur conclusion : la glace que nous perdons dans la région est perdue à jamais !

Article de Nathalie Mayer paru le 25/09/2020

L’Antarctique, c’est plus de la moitié de l’eau douce de la Terre retenue prisonnière dans une vaste calotte de glace de près de cinq kilomètres d’épaisseur. Depuis le milieu des années 1990, sous l’effet du réchauffement climatique, cette calotte a perdu près de quatre milliards de tonnes de glace. Une fonte qui va en s’accélérant. Et si le continent tout entier devait disparaître, le niveau de la mer s’élèverait de pas moins de… 58 mètres !

Pour mieux comprendre comment un tel effondrement pourrait se produire, des scientifiques de l’Institut de recherche sur les effets du changement climatique de Potsdam (Allemagne) ont simulé, de manière très détaillée, l’impact dans le temps et dans l’espace d’une hausse des températures sur la glace antarctique. Ils en ont déduit une série de points de non-retour, des niveaux critiques de réchauffement à partir desquels certaines parties de la calotte glaciaire antarctique deviendraient instables.

Les travaux des chercheurs allemands tiennent compte de différents effets de rétroaction, tant positifs que négatifs. Par exemple, le fait que lorsque les sommets des calottes glaciaires fondent, leur altitude diminue, laissant à l’air la possibilité de se réchauffer. Un phénomène qui accélère la fonte. Mais des températures atmosphériques plus chaudes permettent également à plus d’eau de mer de s’évaporer, ajoutant de l’humidité à l’air et augmentant ainsi les chutes de neige. De quoi ralentir la fonte de l’Antarctique.

L’animation montre l’évolution modélisée à long terme de la calotte glaciaire antarctique sous des températures en constante augmentation. © Institut de recherche sur les effets du changement climatique de Potsdam, YouTube

En dessous de +1°C de réchauffement — la température de référence étant toujours celle de la moyenne de la période préindustrielle –, justement, les chutes de neige permettent à la masse de glace antarctique d’augmenter légèrement. En revanche, après environ +2°C de réchauffement — l’objectif que se sont fixé les signataires de l’Accord de Paris –, l’inlandsis de l’Antarctique occidental devient instable. Les eaux chaudes en provenance de l’océan poussent à son effondrement. Le niveau de la mer augmente alors de 2,5 mètres.

À partir de +6 °C de réchauffement, la surface de la glace a suffisamment baissé pour accélérer encore un peu plus la fonte. Ce sont les glaciers de l’est de l’Antarctique qui disparaissent. Entre +6 et +9 °C de réchauffement, plus de 70 % de la masse totale de glace est perdue. De quoi élever le niveau de la mer de plus de 40 mètres.

Et selon les travaux des chercheurs allemands, pour reconstituer la calotte glaciaire de l’Antarctique occidental, il faudrait que les températures globales sur Terre baissent à -1 °C en dessous de celles de l’époque préindustrielle. « L’Antarctique existe depuis environ 34 millions d’années. Nos simulations montrent qu’une fois fondu, il ne reviendra pas à son état initial sauf dans un scénario hautement improbable où les températures chutent littéralement, commente Anders Levermann, chercheur à de l’Institut de recherche sur les effets du changement climatique de Potsdam dans un communiqué. En d’autres termes : ce que nous perdons de l’Antarctique maintenant est perdu pour toujours ! ».

“

Cette étude montre l’importance de respecter l’Accord de Paris.

Mais le sort de l’Antarctique reste entre nos mains. « En brûlant du charbon et du pétrole, nous déterminons à quelle allure les seuils de température critiques que nous avons définis seront franchis. Et même si la perte de glace se produit sur des échelles de temps longues, les niveaux respectifs de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) peuvent déjà être atteints dans un proche avenir. Cette étude montre vraiment l’importance de respecter l’Accord de Paris sur le climat : maintenir le réchauffement climatique en dessous de 2°C , conclut le chercheur. Si nous abandonnons l’Accord de Paris, nous abandonnons Hambourg, Tokyo et New York ! »

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